Border guards reinforce sea embankment of Cẩm Nhượng Commune, Cẩm Xuyên District, the central province of Hà Tĩnh to prepare for storms. — VNA/VNS Photo Công Tường

HÀ NỘI — Assessing the weather conditions from now until the beginning of 2024, Head of the Weather Forecasting Department at the National Centre for Meteorological and Hydrological Forecasting Nguyễn Văn Hưởng, said the atmosphere and the ocean are in the El Niño phase.

It is forecast that this phenomenon, the abnormal warming of the sea surface in the central equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean, will continue for the next three months with a probability of over 95 per cent and the intensity will likely taper off from then.

Hưởng said from now until the end of 2023, there is a possibility of two to three tropical storms and tropical depressions entering the East Sea, including one or two storms that may directly impact Việt Nam.

From November 2023 to January 2024, the average temperature nationwide will be about 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average. In the winter of 2023-24, cold air is expected to be weaker than the multi-year average.

Severe cold spells (defined as when the daily temperature average ranges between 13-15 degrees Celsius) or harmful cold spells (when the daily temperature average is lower than 13 degrees) may appear quite late in the north and north-central regions, and the number of days with severe cold and harmful cold is likely to be lower than the multi-year average.

The central region is expected to experience lots of days with thunderstorms and heavy rain. Nationwide, precautions should be taken for dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail, and strong winds.

Regarding the total rainfall in different regions of the country, the weather official stated that the total rainfall in November in the Northern region is generally 10-20 per cent higher than the multi-year average. In January 2024, the total rainfall will be generally 20-40 mm (5-15 mm higher than the multi-year average for the same period).

In the Central region, the total rainfall in November is generally 10-20 per cent lower than the multi-year average. However, some provinces from Thanh Hoá to Quảng Bình will experience 10-30 per cent higher rainfall than the multi-year average. In December 2023, the total rainfall in the Northern Central region is forecast to be 20-40 per cent higher than the multi-year average.

In the central and south-central regions, the total rainfall is approximately the same as the multi-year average for the same period.

The total rainfall in November-December 2023 in the Central Highlands and southern regions is approximately the same as the multi-year average for the same period.

However, in December 2023, the total rainfall in the Central Highlands is 5-15 per cent lower than the multi-year average. In January 2024, there is generally little rainfall, with total rainfall ranging from 5-15 mm.

In the upper Mekong River region, the total rainfall in November 2023 is generally 10-20 per cent higher than the multi-year average. In December 2023 and January 2024, the total rainfall will be generally 20-50 per cent higher than the multi-year average.

Hưởng warns that tropical storms, tropical depressions, and northeasterly winds may cause strong winds and large waves affecting activities on coastal areas.

In addition, heavy rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail, severe cold, harmful cold, frost, and ice may have a negative impact on production activities and community health in various regions nationwide. — VNS