Lê Thanh Dũng, director of the Population Department under the Ministry of Health. — VNA/VNS Photo Thùy Giang

Lê Thanh Dũng, director of the Population Department under the Ministry of Health, talks to the Vietnam+ e-newspaper about the population, achievements so far and challenges that need to be resolved.

Việt Nam's population is in the golden population period, so how do we take advantage of the structure?

The golden population is the period when the proportion of people in the working age (15-64 years old) is higher than the proportion of dependent ones (under 15 years old and over 64 years old).

This structure often occurs when birth rates decrease and average life expectancy increases.

The golden population is considered an opportunity for the economic development of a country. During this period, the labour force is abundant, which can promote production and economic growth. However, the golden population can also lead to a number of challenges, such as increased pressure on the health and education systems, increased risk of unemployment and increased social inequality.

Việt Nam is in the golden population period. According to forecasts of the General Statistics Office, the structure will last until 2041. This is an opportunity for Việt Nam to promote economic and social development.

The golden population only appears once for each country, so it is necessary to have a national strategy on employment to adapt to the period. The Ministry of Health will have to improve population quality and take care of people's health, especially health examinations before marriage, prenatal and neonatal screening, diagnosis and treatment according to the Prime Minister’s Decision No. 1999 issued on December 7, 2020.

How will low fertility impact the population structure?

Fertility is one of the most important factors affecting population growth rate, population size as well as population structure in a country.

If the birth rate is too high compared to the death rate, it will lead to a rapid increase in population size, negatively impacting the ecological environment and socio-economic development goals.

On the contrary, if the fertility rate is too low, it will have a direct and profound impact on the population structure and leave many consequences.

One is the shortage of workers. Second is increasing the aging rate and number of the elderly. Third is a decline in population size and negative population growth. These will greatly impact socio-economic development, national defence and security.

The consequences of population problem are very long, only seen decades later, even a generation later.

The future generation born will enjoy the sweet or bitter fruits of our policies today. Even to achieve replacement fertility level, we have to go through three or four generations of childbearing. Replacement fertility is the fertility level at which a woman has, on average, just enough daughters to replace herself in the next cycle of population. Therefore, when the replacement fertility rate is maintained, it will continue stabilising the population structure at a reasonable level, contributing to the country’s sustainable development.

A nurse takes care of a new-born baby at the Việt Nam National Children’s Hospital. — VNA/VNS Photo Hoàng Hiếu

In addition to the impact on population size, how will the decreasing fertility affect the age structure in the future?

Việt Nam's population is in the transition stage from replacement fertility level, to low fertility trend, from early birth model to late birth model, from high death rate to low death rate, from young population structure to aging population.

The decreasing fertility, in addition to the impact on population size, also leads to a decrease in the proportion of children under 15 years old and an increase in the proportion of elderly people.

Currently, Việt Nam is still in the process of aging population and is one of the countries with the fastest aging rate in the world.

While it takes developed countries decades and some countries centuries to transition from the aging population stage to the old population stage, in Việt Nam it only takes about 26 years.

If in 2009, for every three children under 15 years old, there was only one person aged 60 or older. Then by 2019, for every two children under 15 years old, there will be one person aged 60 or older. Accordingly, as fertility rates decrease further it accelerates the population aging process in Việt Nam.

Thus, if fertility continues to decrease, the working age force will decrease in the future, while the average life expectancy of Vietnamese people increases rapidly, leading to a very high proportion of the elderly in the total population.

What are the causes leading to the recent decline in fertility in Việt Nam?

Việt Nam's fertility model has shifted from the highest fertility rate in the age group from 20-24 years old to the age group from 25-29 years old, at the same time as the age of marriage increases, reducing the marriage rate.

This shows that the trend of marrying late, not wanting to get married, not wanting to have children, giving birth late, giving birth to fewer children is increasing and is likely to accelerate.

The urbanisation and economic development lead to pressure in finding jobs, housing, living costs and higher costs of raising and caring for children, which is also one of the causes of fertility decline.

Infrastructure for education, healthcare and basic social services in industrial parks and economic zones still has many shortcomings.

What are priorities of the health sector to implement Việt Nam's commitment to achieve sustainable development goals and ensure population quality?

The Prime Minister has issued the Việt Nam Population Strategy, which prioritises until 2030, specifically: adjusting fertility levels to ensure maintenance of national replacement fertility levels and reduce by 50 per cent the fertility gap between rural and urban areas, mountainous areas and plains; improve the quality of family planning services so that all women of childbearing age have convenient access to modern contraceptive methods, infertility prevention and reproductive support.

We believe that with the results, achieved over time and after evaluating limitations and difficulties and setting priorities, the population sector will fulfill the goals of the population strategy with a far vision in the field of population and development, towards the post-2030 agenda. — VNS