SINGAPORE - Media OutReach - 23 July 2019 - The most dangerous issue in US-China relations is Taiwan. This iswhy it was unwise for the Trump Administration to allow a high-profile transitby President Tsai Ing-wen through the US in July 2019. Ignoring pastprecedents, the Administration allowed her to have public meetings attended bythe media and meet with UN representatives of Taiwanese allies. This has angeredBeijing.

Taiwan is the onlyissue that can trigger a war between the US and China. Yet, despite this, waris unlikely. Over several decades, the US and China have worked out an understandingon the Taiwan issue that has kept the peace. However, some ambiguity isembedded in this understanding. On one hand, the US acknowledges that both Beijingand Taipei "maintain there is but one China" and withdrew diplomaticrecognition of Taipei in 1979. On the other, Congress passed the TaiwanRelations Act (TRA) that same year, which provides for American support forTaiwan's defense. Despite this ambiguity, the US and China have managed tomaintain a stable relationship on the Taiwan issue.

This consensus maychange under the Trump Administration, which is less sensitive to Beijing'sconcerns on Taiwan. President Trump took a personal congratulatory call fromTsai Ing-wen upon his election. He authorized new defense sales and allowedTsai to travel through the US. His National Security Advisor, John Bolton, hasbeen even more provocative in his call for Washington to "revisit" theone-China policy. Paradoxically, the Trump Administration's erratic behavior onseveral international issues may work to Beijing's advantage. Richard Bush, anAmerican expert on Taiwan, has said that the Trump Administration may beprepared to sacrifice Taiwan if it wants to settle larger issues with Beijing,making Taiwan a geopolitical pawn.

The biggest concernfor Beijing is whether other countries would follow the Trump Administration's leadand step up ties with Taiwan. This will not happen. As China will inevitably becomethe world's largest economy, no country will sacrifice its relations with Chinafor the sake of Taiwan. Taiwanese leaders should therefore develop a sense ofgeopolitical realism in dealing with China. The best way for Taiwan to expandits diplomatic space is to accept the 1992 Consensus. Similarly, Washington shouldalso develop greater geopolitical sensitivity. It has two choices towardsTaiwan. If it views Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier, this would onlyreinforce Taiwan's isolation from the mainland and, consequently, the rest ofthe world. However, if the US views Taiwan as a healthy virus, it wouldencourage greater contact between the mainland and Taiwan, which, in the longrun, could lessen the differences between the political systems of the mainlandand Taiwan. In short, there is a possibility of a happy outcome of the Taiwanissue if Beijing, Taipei and Washington learn to handle it sensitively.

This paper iscommissioned by Flat Globe Capital.