• Ocean trade set to remain robust in the comingthree months, with imports showing particularly strong growth
• Trade in Land Vehicles & Parts, Temperatureor Climate Control goods, and both Basic and Industrial Raw Materials continuesto sustain overall growth

MUMBAI , INDIA - Media OutReach - 8 July 2019 - The DHL Global TradeBarometer (or "Barometer"), an early indicator of global trade developmentscalculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, predicts trade in Indiawill grow in the third quarter of 2019, albeit at a slower rate with thecountry's overall trade index declining 6 points to 53. It is the only one offour countries in Asia tracked by the Global Trade Barometer to still registeran index value of above 50. [1]

"Amidst heightened and prolonged volatility,India's economy remains a notable positive exception to the trend of globaltrade contraction. As the country with the most bullish trade forecasts inprevious iterations of the Global Trade Barometer, India's historic pace oftrade growth has so far cushioned it somewhat against global contractionarysentiment. Nevertheless, the country's marked slowdown in trade growth suggestsbusinesses remain reluctant to overexpose themselves to global tradevolatility." said Niki Frank, Managing Director for DHL Global Forwarding India.

Strong ocean trade will contribute significantlyto that growth with an index value of 59: ocean imports of both Industrial andBasic Raw Materials are expected to remain strong, along with ocean exports of Basic Raw Materials, Chemicals andProducts and Temperature and Climate Control goods [2] .However, air trade looks set to contract with an index of just 45, due tosoftening exports of Consumer Fashion Goods; persistent weakness in HighTechnology and Machinery imports; and a sharp decline in exports of Chemicalsand Products.

Latest results show negative effects of trade wars

For the first time in six quarters, theBarometer's results predict a slight decline in global trade in the comingthree months, with its overall world trade outlook dropping to just 48 indexpoints. The continued trade disputes between the US and China have contributedsignificantly to that decline, with both countries experiencing the largestdeclines in their trade outlook (-11 points for the US, -7 points for China)out of all countries surveyed by the Barometer.

Commenting on the latest forecast, Tim Scharwath,CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said, "Amidst rising US-Chinesetensions, the slightly negative outlook for global trade for the third quarterof 2019 does not come as a complete surprise. The latest GTB clearlyillustrates why trade disputes create no winners. Nevertheless, some majoreconomies such as Germany continue to record positive trade growth. And from ayear-to-date perspective, world trade growth has still been positive. Hence, weremain confident in our initial prognosis that 2019 will be a year with overallpositive, but slower trade growth."

Scharwath added, "The GTB is a useful tool for usto anticipate economic developments at an early stage. We are well-prepared totackle the forecasted developments. Our divisional structure and portfolio aswell as our worldwide activities allow us to balance economic effects withinthe company and remain resilient to changes in global trade dynamics."

About the Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global TradeBarometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state andfuture development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logisticsdata that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicatoris published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled for September2019.

For more information on the DHL Global TradeBarometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.

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