• Air exports of Capital Equipment and Machinery,High Technology, and Chemicals and Products show signs of growth
• Both air and ocean trade growth expected toremain flat between June and August 2019

TOKYO, JAPAN - Media OutReach - 8 July 2019 - Japanese trade looks tostagnate in the coming quarter for the first time since 2015, according to datafrom the DHL Global Trade Barometer ("GTB" or the "Barometer"). The GTB, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligenceand big data, suggests that the downward trend for Japan's trade growth willaccelerate between June and August 2019, dropping seven points to an overallindex value of 50. [1]

"Japan's exposure to both sides of the ongoingUS-China trade dispute appears to be taking a rising toll on its own trade outlook,with exports to China alone falling by 10% in May -- causing overall exports todrop by nearly 8% as imports experienced a decline after unexpected growth inApril," said Charles Kaufmann, CEO North Asia South Pacific, DHL GlobalForwarding and President/Representative Director, DHL Global Forwarding JapanK.K. "Ongoing volatility and uncertainty in global trade conditions, coupledwith indirect exposure to the tariffs being wielded in the US-China dispute,have created conditions where Japan's key manufacturing industries are exercising morecaution than ever before."

Both air and ocean trade volumes are expected todecelerate to near-zero growth, with exports from Capital Equipment andMachinery, High Technology, Chemicals and Products and Machinery Parts for airexports, and Industrial Raw Materials and Land Vehicles & Parts for oceanexports, displaying the only significant gains.[2]Air exports remain relatively strong, even as the overall air trade outlookfell by 11 points to 50 due to a fall in air imports, while ocean trade looksset to contract with an index of 49 points.

Latest results show negative effects of tradewars

For the first time since its launch in 2018, theBarometer's results predict a slight decline in global trade in the three-monthperiod ending in August 2019, with its overall world trade outlook dropping tojust 48 index points.

Commenting on the latest forecast, Tim Scharwath,CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said, "Amidst rising US-Chinesetensions, the slightly negative outlook for global trade for the third quarterof 2019 does not come as a complete surprise. The latest GTB clearlyillustrates why trade disputes create no winners. Nevertheless, some majoreconomies such as Germany continue to record positive trade growth. And from ayear-to-date perspective, world trade growth has still been positive. Hence, weremain confident in our initial prognosis that 2019 will be a year with overallpositive, but slower trade growth."

The continued trade disputes between the US andChina have contributed significantly to that decline, with both countriesexperiencing the largest contraction in their trade outlook (-11 points for theUS, -7 points for China) out of all countries surveyed by the Barometer.

Scharwath added, "The GTB is a useful tool for usto anticipate economic developments at an early stage. We are well-prepared totackle the forecasted developments. Our divisional structure and portfolio aswell as our worldwide activities allow us to balance economic effects withinthe company and remain resilient to changes in global trade dynamics."

About the Global Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global TradeBarometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state andfuture development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logisticsdata that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicatoris published four times a year and the next release date is scheduled for September2019.

For more information on the DHL Global TradeBarometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/gtb.

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