China’s growth forecast remains solid for Q4 2018

October 08, 2018 - 02:41
China’s growth forecast remains solid for Q4 2018

  • Mild growth forChinese trade in both air and ocean freight
  • Important growthsectors include Personal & Household Goods, Machinery Parts, Basic RawMaterials, as well as Chemicals & Products


SHANGHAI, CHINA - MediaOutReach - 8 October 2018 - China's trade is predictedto remain positive and solid on an overall level despite a slowing growth in airand ocean trade in the coming quarter, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, theworld's leading logistics company.


The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator ofglobal trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and BigData, shows that China's overall index decreased from 63 to 59 compared toJune. Most of the country's subdued growth will likely stem from air imports ofChemicals & Products, Capital Equipment, Machinery Parts, Consumer FashionGoods and Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods. Ocean trade is also expectedto maintain moderate growth at 56 points due to high exports of Personal & Household Goods andMachinery Parts.


"With the rise of domestic consumption and e-commerce platforms inChina, consumer spending is expected to drive the country's gross domesticproduct growth despite ongoing uncertainty in its global trade relations," saidSteve Huang, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Greater China. "Domestic consumptioncontributed almost 80% of GDP growth in the first half of 2018, an increase ofmore than half the year before.[1]As such, we'rebeginning to see the effects of China's economic transition towards becoming adigitally-enabled mass-consumer market, even as trade continues for rawmaterials necessary to their manufacture."


The Barometer's resultsalso suggest that despite intensifying global trade disputes, mainlybetween China and the US, world trade is expected to growover the next three months albeit at a slower pace. The growth outlook lookspositive for all Asia Pacific countries with India leading the ranks, alongwith optimistic outlooks for South Korea, China, and Japan. This is testamentto the Asian economy's growth, especially in the areas of technology andmanufacturing. In the Global Trade Barometer methodology, an index value above50 indicates positive growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

Developed jointly by DHL andAccenture, the DHL Global Trade Barometerprovides a quarterly outlook on future trade, taking into consideration theimport and export data of seven large economies: China, South Korea, Germany,India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Together, thesecountries account for 75 percent of world trade, making their aggregated dataan effective bellwether for near-term predictions on global trade. The DHLGlobal Trade Barometer, which assesses commodities that serve as thebasis for further industrial production, predicts that global trade willcontinue to grow in the next three months, despite slight losses in momentum.


DHL -- The logistics company for the world


DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our DHL familyof divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics services ranging fromnational and international parcel delivery, e-commerce shipping and fulfillmentsolutions, international express, road, air and ocean transport to industrialsupply chain management. With about 360,000 employees in more than 220countries and territories worldwide, DHL connects people and businessessecurely and reliably, enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutionsfor growth markets and industries including technology, life sciences andhealthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to corporateresponsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing markets, DHL isdecisively positioned as "The logistics company for the world".


DHL is part ofDeutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of more than 60 billioneuros in 2017.