Workers of EVN check the 110kV station in Thái Nguyên Province. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has developed three scenarios for electricity supply in 2025 in which the electricity demand for the country’s socio-economic development will be basically met. — VNA/VNS Photo Huy Hùng

HÀ NỘI — The Ministry of Industry and Trade has developed three scenarios for electricity supply in 2025, in which the electricity demand for the country will be basically met, although there might be some tense times during peak dry season months, a conference on Thursday heard.

At the meeting to discuss plans for 2025, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Hồng Diên said accurate forecasts, careful preparations and flexible operations are needed to ensure power supply, in order to promote socio-economic development.

Electricity plans should be developed based on economic growth target which is expected at more than 7 per cent next year, meaning that the electricity demand will increase by 11 per cent or higher, especially in peak dry season months.

Other factors which affect electricity demand growth in 2025 should also be taken into account, Diên said.

He pointed out that an estimated sum of more than US$40 billion worth of foreign investments are being disbursed this year, which will push up electricity demand in 2025. In addition, global investment shifts, in which Việt Nam emerges as an attractive destination, will impact electricity supply planning.

Next year, a number of major national projects will be completed or implemented, he noted.

The impacts of the amended Law on Electricity which is expected to be passed at the 15th National Assembly’s eighth meeting as well as policies such as direct power purchase agreement (DPPA) and rooftop solar power should also be considered.

According to the National Electricity System and Market Operation Company Limited (NSMO), in the first scenario, electricity demand in 2025 will increase by 10.5 per cent over this year to reach 342.3 billion kWh.

In this scenario, the national power system will meet the demand for socio-economic development for the entire year, NSMO said.

In the second scenario, the electricity demand is projected to increase by 13.3 per cent to 351 billion kWh. In this scenario, the national power system can meet the demand for most of the year. However, NSMO noted that thermoelectricity sources must be fully mobilised, while the domestic gas-fired and LNG power sources must be mobilised at a high level.

In the highest scenario, the electricity demand is projected to increase by 14.3 per cent in 2025 to 354 billion kWh. This scenario might happen if there is a coincidence of factors such as low water levels and thermoelectricity plants having problems in peak dry season. NSMO said that in this scenario, besides mobilising sources in the second scenario at the highest levels, demand response will be necessary together with the mobilisation of diesel – fired power from April to June.

Diên said that the first scenario should be the base scenario for management with the electricity demand to increase by around 11 per cent and 12 per cent in the dry season.

He also asked the electricity system operation and supply plans to be reviewed quarterly based on the monthly evaluation with flexibility. Together with the electricity supply plan, there must be plans of coal and gas supply for electricity production, Diên said.

According to Vietnam Electricity (EVN), there will be some risks of power shortages in the northern region in the peak dry season months from May to July.

EVN pointed out that one of the problems in regards to electricity supply next year is the possible strong drops in gas supply for electricity production compared to previous years.

Most new power generation projects are slow to be implemented, while most large hydropower projects have been developed and put into operation, there are only several small-scale hydropower projects under construction.

The implementation of thermoelectricity projects is also struggling with getting credit after Việt Nam committed to achieve net zero by 2050.

Gas-fired power, except for Nhơn Trạch 3 and 4 and Hiệp Phước 1 with a total capacity of around 2,828 MW, which may go on line by 2030, can hardly be completed.

With regard to offshore wind power, EVN said that Việt Nam has set the goal of having 6,000 MW by 2030. However, it takes around 6-8 years to develop an offshore wind power projects. Policies for offshore wind power is just being developed.

Renewable energy projects under the eighth national power development plan are also waiting for policies and mechanisms for implementation.

NSMO estimated that the total electricity output, including imports, of the entire system in 2024 at 309.7 billion kWH, a rise of around 10.09 per cent over 2023 and 878,000 kWH lower than the 2024 plan.

Traditional power sources, including hydropower and thermoelectricity, are expected to add 4,081MW to the system by the end of 2025, while renewable energy sources will add 1,177 MW. — VNS