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Gold prices decrease and experts say now is the right time to buy

Update: August, 13/2020 - 20:35


A customer buys gold at Bảo TÍn Minh Châu Gold Firm in Hà Nội.  — VNA/VNS Photo Danh Lam

HÀ NỘI — After declining to sell 20 tael of gold at VNĐ60 million (US$2,596) each on August 7, investor Đỗ Thu Hằng now calculates she lost VNĐ250 million because of that decision. Since earlier this week, the prices of the yellow metal have fluctuated sharply in Việt Nam.

At some points of the morning of August 12, gold was rated at VNĐ47 million per tael for buying then gained between VNĐ5 million and VNĐ6 million per tael in the afternoon.

Hằng did not sell her gold when prices hit a record level last week as she believed they would rise to VNĐ70 million.

However, gold prices started falling. From the peak of more than VNĐ62 million on August 7, five days later, each tael of gold was rated around VNĐ51 million.  

At 5 pm of August 13, the price for one tael was VNĐ55.5 million. Compared to earlier the same day, each tael lost more than VNĐ1 million. The Saigon Gold and Jewelry Company rated each tael of SJC gold at VNĐ53.18 million and VND55.78 million (sell-buy).

While Phú Quý Group rated VNĐ54 million on the buying side and VNĐ55.5 million on the selling side for each tael of gold. Also selling at the same prices, Bảo Tín Minh Châu Gold Firm in Hà Nội offered to buy the gold at VNĐ53.80 million per tael.

Rating lower, Doji Group rated down its buying price at VNĐ53.65 million with a sales price of VNĐ55.15 million.

The gap between the selling and buying side was between VNĐ2.4 million and VNĐ3.3 million per tael. According to experts, with such a huge gap, gold surfers would take on lots of risk. The advised gap was between VNĐ500,000 and VNĐ700,000.

In the global mảket, after falling from $2,000 per ounce on August 12, gold prices gained more than $17 to $1,932 per ounce ($2,327 per tael) on Kitco. Compared to the global rates, the local prices for a tael of gold were still $100 higher.

Gold expert Phan Dũng Khánh, investment director of Maybank Kim Eng Securities, forecast they could go down more. 

“The global gold prices had their nine-week continuous increase, the longest increasing period so they needed to have some rest.”

He said that many central banks have slowed their gold buying and expected a decrease this week, but forecast the yellow metal to experience another wave of increase in a short term.

Khánh told Việt Nam News: "Investors should wait until the prices are lower to buy.”

Talking to Kitco News, a representative of Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, said the gold price could dip below $1,700 this year before resuming its increase.

According to the experts, a corrective pullback was widely expected as gold prices rose incredibly fast in a very short period of time, adding the price correction could make gold prices retreat as far as $1,700 or even $1,500 this year before reversing and hitting new record highs above $2,000 an ounce. 

Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates managing partner Leigh Goehring, told Kitco News the pullback might represent “the last great buying opportunity.”

He said the prices could continue to drop on receding fears of the COVID-19 pandemic adding that the massive price drop could strike any time this year or at the beginning of 2021.

In the local market, Khánh told investors to watch the US dollar prices carefully as the prices of gold and US dollars often went in the other direction, saying: “When gold prices go down the dollar rates will go up.”

The gold expert said all of her forecasts are based on the technical movement of the prices, data from the World Gold Council and reaction of the local market, however, he said: “At the end of the day, the market will be the one to decide. Investors must watch all carefully to avoid losses.” — VNS

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