HÀ NỘI — Increases in environmental protection taxes on petroleum from the beginning of next year would weigh heavily on inflation, especially as fuel prices rise worldwide, according to the Việt Nam Institute For Economic and Policy Research (VEPR).

Nguyễn Đức Thành, VEPR’s director said at the launching of the report about the Vietnamese macro-economy in Hà Nội yesterday that inflation in 2019 would exceed the 4 per cent target  set in recent years.

“The Government should have strong measures to control inflation next year,” Thành said.

With environmental protection taxes on petroleum to be raised from VNĐ3,000 to VNĐ4,000 per litre from next year, VEPR estimated this increase might push up inflation by 1.6 percentage points within 12 months.

“The pressure on inflation next year requires the State Bank of Việt Nam to be cautious with money supply and credit policies,” Thành added.

Previously, the National Assembly Finance and Budget Committee, however, estimated that tax hikes on petroleum would push up CPI in 2019 by 0.07-0.09 per cent.

For inflation this year, Thành said: “The Government’s target of keeping inflation under 4 per cent this year is within reach if there are no big fuel price shocks in the quarter.”

VEPR projected inflation to be at 4.25 per cent in the last quarter of this year.

Deputy Prime Minister Vương Đình Huệ at a meeting of the Price Management Steering Committee at the end of September asked efforts to keep inflation at 3.7-3.95 per cent in 2018, urging close watch on global prices updates, especially oil prices and the impacts of unpredictable weather.

Huệ also asked relevant ministries to plan for 2019 with the goal of controlling inflation at around 4 per cent.

The National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council proposed that the inflation target should be set at around 4 per cent in 2019 rather than below 4 per cent.

Thành said economic growth will be impressive, adding that VEPR predict it to be at 6.85 per cent for 2018, far exceeding the National Assembly’s target at 6.5-6.7 per cent.

“However, in the context of escalating trade war and rising protectionism, the Vietnamese economy might face uncertainty from shocks in the global markets,” he said.

The Fed’s interest rate hikes would create pressure on the domestic currency and exchange rates, he said. While, the use of foreign currency reserve to stability exchange rates was only short-term and might bring risks, given the thin reserve of Việt Nam, Thành said.  

“The US - China trade war is an opportunity for Việt Nam to speed up reform and enhance resilience against global risks, including reducing budget deficit, increasing trust surplus, improving business climate and simplifying administrative procedures,” Thành said. — VNS