• Stable outlook for ocean trade to offset fall inair trade, diminishing overall trade outlook decline to index value of 45
• Air imports momentum allude to shift in focus tostrengthen productivity and competitiveness in its domestic economy
• DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts a milddecline in world trade, with most country indexes revealing a downward trend

SHANGHAI,CHINA - Media OutReach - 10 October 2019 - China's Septembertrade outlook registered a four-point decline from June to an index value of 45,according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, theworld's leading logistics company. Mainly driven by a significant eight-pointfall in overall air trade, the bright spots of growth in air imports appear setto carry the fall in exports.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an earlyindicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligenceand big data analytics, suggests that China's air imports of Basic RawMaterials, Machinery Parts, Chemicals & Products, and Temperature orClimate Controlled Goods will be the biggest near-term contributor to tradegrowth although challenges faced by air exports will negate that growth. September2019's ocean trade outlook remains unchanged from June's index value of 47. 

"Whilst this quarter's index indicates acontinued deceleration in China's trade growth, it equally reveals aninteresting shift toward new opportunities to further strengthen the country'seconomy," said Steve Huang, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Greater China. "Theincrease in air imports of raw materials and machinery parts are in line with recentplans to move from high-speed to high-quality growth, concentrating on theadoption of artificial intelligence, smart manufacturing and renewable energyto establish country-wide infrastructure projects. With borrowing costs loweredto 4.2% to shore up economic growth, the country's trade continues tomaintain momentum as the government and businesses focus on boosting theireconomic activity, productivity and competitiveness."

Forecastfor China consistent with stagnating world trade outlook

The Barometer's results also suggest that worldtrade remains at a crossroads and will further lose momentum over the next twomonths, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. The currentdecline is triggered solely by a drop in air trade, with global ocean tradeoutlook remaining stable. All seven nations surveyed reveal indexes below 50points except for Japan and the UK, where the Barometer forecasts a positivegrowth momentum for the two economies at 53 points each. In the Global TradeBarometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, whilevalues below 50 indicate contraction.

"Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder and geopoliticaltensions are causing uncertainty. Againstthis backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Althoughthe DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased -- with an index value of47 points --world trade is still closer to staying at its high level," TimScharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. "This strengthens ourconviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its keyenabler in the future."

Impact of US-Chinese tensions reflected in theirown results

Thetrade conflict between China and the US continues to simmer, resulting in anoverall subdued trade mood, with US and China accounting for the most negativetrade outlooks in September. It is expected that US trade will shrink further,remaining in negative territory with 45 points, despite having climbed onepoint since June.

About theGlobal Trade Barometer

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global TradeBarometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state andfuture development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logisticsdata that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.

The indicator is published four times a year andthe next release date is scheduled for November 2019. For more information onthe DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.

Note to editors:

Trade tensions between the US and China has caused many repercussions. Find out which sectors in China have beenaffected and what the trade dispute means for large companies operating in China.

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