VN to have 1.5 million 'surplus' adult males 2034 due to skewed sex ratio at birth: analysis

December 19, 2020 - 08:00
Viet Nam faces a significantly imbalanced sex ratio at birth (SRB) that will mean by 2034, about 1.5 million men will not be able to marry wives, a study has found.
Students in the central province of Nghệ An eagerly join a game in a ceremony in response to the International Girls’ Day October 11. — VNA/VNS Photo Nguyễn Oanh

HÀ NỘI — Viet Nam faces a significantly imbalanced sex ratio at birth (SRB) that will mean by 2034, about 1.5 million men will not be able to marry wives, a study has found.

The results of studies by the General Statistics Office and the United Nations Population Fund were released yesterday. The key findings of these studies provide information about the current situation, trends and factors influencing the population, as well as help propose suggestions for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

The analysis was based on the results of the 2019 Population and Housing Census, which were announced on December 19, 2019.

The preference for families to have a son was reflected largely in prenatal sex selection as early as the first parity (the first time a woman gives birth), with the SRB for the first parity being 109.5 boys per 100 girls and rising for the third and higher parities (119.8 boys per 100 girls). For couples who have already had two daughters, the SRB for the third parity is 143.8 boys per 100 girls.

If the SRB declines rapidly and reaches a normal level by 2039, the male between the age of 15 and 49 excess will still be 1.5 million men in 2034 and 1.8 million in 2059.

Among ethnic groups with a population of more than 1 million people including Kinh, Tày, Thái, Khmer, Mường, Mông, and Nùng, the Mông ethnic group has the highest fertility. However, over the last three decades, the total fertility rates of all these groups have decreased, with the Mông group experiencing the most significant decline, about 9.3 children per woman in 1989; 4.96 children per woman in 2009 and 3.59 children per woman in 2019. The fertility difference between ethnic groups is narrowing gradually.

According to the analysis Việt Nam has 6.4 million migrants aged five and above, accounting for 7.3 per cent of the total population. This is lower than the number of migrants in 2009, which was 6.7 million people, constituting 8.5 per cent of the population. Females still make up a higher proportion than men in the migrant population, but this pattern is gradually changing towards equilibrium. The majority of migrants are young people aged 20-39 years old, accounting for 61.8 per cent of the total migrant population.

Migrant children are more disadvantaged than non-migrant ones in accessing lower and upper secondary education. In particular, children in the interprovincial migrant group, who move from province to province, face more challenges than those in other migrant groups in terms of accessing education at all levels. In 2019, 83.9 per cent of non-migrant children aged 11-18 attended school, compared with only 55.7 per cent of their interprovincial migration counterparts. 

The percentage of migrants with technical and professional qualification has improved over the last 10 years, from 22.9 per cent in 2009 to 37.2 per cent in 2019, which is higher than that of non-migrants.

There is a close relationship between migration and urbanisation. Migrants aged five and above account for 12.3 per cent of the urban population. Immigration pressure on special-class cities is the greatest. There are nearly 200 immigrants for every 1,000 residents living in special-class cities, 2.7 times higher than the national average.

According to the analysis of the 2019 Population and Housing Census, the current fertility of Viet Nam is around the replacement fertility level and will contribute to the reduction of population growth rate in the future.

The annual population growth rate for the next 10 years is expected to be less than 1 per cent. Given the current situation of low fertility, population structure and high sex ratio at birth, the future population structure will change towards aged population and shortages of men in certain age groups. This will have a dramatic impact on the workforce and contribute to emerging social issues.

In addition, migration trends and the impact of migration on urbanisation and socioeconomic development will become emerging issues in the near future.

The 2019 Việt Nam Population and Housing Census was conducted on 1 April 2019, in accordance with Decision No 772/QĐ-TTg dated 26 June 2018 by the Prime Minister. This is the fifth Population and Housing Census in Việt Nam since the country’s reunification in 1975. — VNS

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