USA - EQS - 31 July 2019 - After posting sharp rises in 2019, prices in the global
travel industry are likely to slow in 2020, with flights rising a modest 1.2%, hotels
rising only 1.3%, and rental car rates up 1%, according to the sixth annual
Global Travel Forecast, published today by CWT and GBTA. While the global
economy is doing well overall -- and expected to grow a solid 3.6% in 2020 -- a
raft of uncertainties are set to put a damper on pricing.
"The risks and ambiguity have increased over the past
few months -- not least the threat of escalating trade wars, the impact of Brexit,
possible oil supply shocks, and the growing likelihood of recession," said Kurt
Ekert, CWT's President and CEO. "This forecast will help travel buyers make the
right decisions in an increasingly challenging environment."
Released today by the Global Business Travel
Association, the voice of the global business travel industry, and CWT, the B2B4E
travel management platform, the 2020 Global Travel Forecast uses data generated
by CWT Solutions Group, to give an early look at the trends and developments
that will shape the business travel industry in the year ahead.
"Technological advancements and an increasingly
volatile economic and political landscape across the globe have changed the way
today's travel buyers need to do their jobs," said Scott Solombrino, GBTA COO
and Executive Director. "This annual forecast provides insights into the key
drivers forcing these shifting priorities and gives a road map for travel
buyers looking to plan their 2020 travel programs."
Air: 1.3% Hotel:
1.3% Ground: 0.5%
expansion has slowed down due to worsening US-China relations, tighter global
financial conditions, and natural disasters. But the region remains the most
dynamic, with steady GDP growth, benign inflation, and a sense of optimism.
Pacific, the shutdown of India-based Jet Airways' operations in April created a
gap in the market for some key routes, and the reduced competition has meant
higher airfares -- but with other airlines adding capacity to fill the vacuum,
fares have begun to normalize.
hospitality industry is booming with hotel investment volumes predicted to grow
15% year-on-year. Japan will host the Rugby World Cup later this year, and the
Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2020, which will boost visitor numbers to the
region. The Japanese hotel market is seeing a sharp increase in supply to
accommodate the anticipated surge in visitors to the country during these
Ground: In China, steady demand and
increased competition will hurt car suppliers. Across Asia Pacific,
ride-sharing is booming, with many companies allowing their employees to use
these services for business travel. Providers like Didi Chuxing, Grab, Go-Jek
and Ola are pursuing aggressive expansion plans, while also taking steps to put
more stringent safety measures in place.
Europe, Middle East & Africa
Eastern Europe: Air:
-0.2% Hotel: 0.7% Ground: 1.5%
Western Europe: Air:
0.7% Ground: 0.5%
Middle East & Africa: Air: 2.2% Hotel: 2.5% Ground: 0.5%
Monetary Fund (IMF) expects steady growth, ranging from 0.3% in the Middle East
to 1.6% in Europe, and 3.6% in Africa. Across Europe, labor unrest, climate
change protests, global trade wars, rising oil prices and regional terrorism
all have the potential to cause a slowdown.
new airport, one of the largest in the region, will likely change flows between
Europe and Asia, providing an alternative stopover point for flights to China
and Eastern Asia.
Hotel: Denmark and Egypt are both countries to
watch, with hotel prices in Denmark expected to fall next year. On the other
hand, Egypt's rates are on the up - projected to rise by 4.7% - as its economy
settles down after a period of unrest.
Ground: Eastern Europe's franchise
model for rental car businesses will see slightly higher growth of 1.5%, due to
supply and demand in the region. Rail prices still vary greatly across EMEA due
to inconsistent regulation.
Air: -1.6% Hotel:
-0.4% Ground: 1%
activity in Latin America continues to grow -- albeit slower than anticipated --
and is expected to rise 2.5% in 2020. A volatile political and economic
situation in some of the largest economies like Argentina, Mexico and Brazil will
long distances, a growing middle class, and low market penetration of air
travel, there are many opportunities, and airlines are making the best of them.
Since 2017, several new carriers have entered the market and low-cost carriers
have gained significant share in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.
Hotel: Following a steady decline
in new hotels from a 2015-2016 peak, things may be picking up, with Mexico
leading the way. More than 10 new corporate chain hotels opened in the region
in the first quarter of 2019 with growth set to continue throughout 2020.
Properties in Mexico and across Latin America are likely to continue to cut
Ground: A slight increase for rental
cars is driven by growing demand in Brazil, the region's biggest economy.
Rental car companies report a cultural shift towards sharing cars rather than
owning them, and growth in tourism is also boosting the industry.
Air: 2.3% Hotel:
2.3% Ground: 1%
the US economy is thriving, there is growing uncertainty, due to tariffs and
trade wars. US GDP growth is set to slow to 2.1% in 2019, and slow further in
2020 and 2021, to 2% and 1.8%, respectively.
are expected to rise, reflecting the strong economies of the US and Canada. Most
airlines are looking to ancillary fees as a way to stay competitive, so costs
of services like Wi-Fi and lounge access may be up for negotiation for
Hotel: The hotel industry has seen
slow, but steady growth. A gradual slowing will help rates return to normal,
correcting the high prices seen in some of the major cities. Technology-focused
areas -- like San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle and Vancouver -- are still seeing
growth. However, demand in these cities has been high for so long that prices
have risen too far -- and business travelers are staying further out in response.
Ground: Due to the nature of
long-term contracts, we are unlikely to see any upward trends in pricing until
2021 or 2022. Traveler preferences are dictating a change in car preferences,
shifting away from traditional sedans in favor of more versatile SUVs and
For more detailed information, download the 2020 Global Travel Forecast
the 2020 Forecast
projections in the 2020 Global Travel Price Forecast are based on:
- A statistical model developed by GBTA with market and
economic research firm, Rockport Analytics, that evaluates historical
price behavior and forecasts future prices in the air, hotel and ground
- The market-specific expertise and travel industry
knowledge of CWT and CWT Solutions Group personnel worldwide.
- Information sourced from Moody's Analytics, the
International Monetary Fund Research Department, the United Nations and
other leading organizations.
are based on transaction data from CWT's global client portfolio, including
anonymized client travel patterns, over the past ten years. Key macroeconomic
and per-country indicators, such as current and expected GDP growth, the
consumer price index, unemployment rates and crude oil prices, were used in the
statistical model, as well as key supply-side drivers sourced from OAG and STR
Global. All air statistics represent point of origin and include all trip
about the Global Travel Forecast and the price projects and trends that lie
ahead in 2020 during an education
session at GBTA Convention 2019 on Monday, August 5 at 9:30 am CST
in room S504ab.
A webinar will
also be taking place for a deeper dive into the research findings featuring
experts from CWT, Rockport Analytics and GBTA. This session will take place on
Thursday, September 19 at 9:00 am CST. Register
About the Global Business Travel Association
Business Travel Association (GBTA) is the world's premier business travel and
meetings trade organization headquartered in the Washington, D.C. area with
operations on six continents. GBTA's 10,000-plus members manage more
than $345 billion of global business travel and meetings expenditures
annually. GBTA delivers world-class education, events, research, advocacy and
media to a growing global network of more than 28,000 travel professionals
and 125,000 active contacts. To learn how business travel drives lasting
business growth, visit www.gbta.org .
CWT is a Business-to-Business-for-Employees (B2B4E) travel management
platform. Companies and governments rely on us to keep their people connected --
anywhere, anytime, anyhow -- and across six continents, we provide their
employees with innovative technology and an efficient, safe and secure travel experience.
Every single day, we look after enough travelers to fill more than 100,000
hotel rooms, while our meetings and events division handles more than 100
events every 24 hours.
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