- Weakening ocean trade and declining air exports are
eroding China's trade growth between June and August 2019
- High Technology and Chemicals & Products
exports, coupled with import demand for Industrial Raw Materials, still
expected to grow in coming months
SHANGHAI, CHINA - Media OutReach - 8 July 2019 - According to the latest data from DHL Global Trade
Barometer, China's trade volumes will likely contract in between June and
August 2019 as ongoing trade disputes weigh down ocean trade imports and air
"The Barometer's latest data was to be expected
given that the ongoing trans-Pacific dispute continue to dominate business and trade
sentiments," said Steve Huang, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Greater China."
Although, certain sectors have maintained relatively strong growth forecasts,
China's trade outlook looks set for further turbulence with the full
impact on major industries like technology and consumer goods likely to
only become apparent in the medium term."
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence
and Big Data, suggests weakening ocean trade -- which slipped 8 points to an
index value of 47 -- will drive the decline in overall Chinese trade, whilst air
trade hangs on precariously to growth territory after dropping 6 points to an
index value of 51.
Air imports remain relatively strong with Machinery Parts, Temperature or
Climate Control goods, and Chemicals and Products still set to grow, albeit at
a slowing pace. However, certain bellwether sectors registered significant
deceleration including Basic Raw Materials, which fell 14 points to 22; and
Consumer Fashion Goods, which declined by 15 points to 37.
"It remains to be seen whether domestic stimulus
measures can reignite growth in key industries like the automotive industry,
with Land Vehicles and Parts showing a 10-point decline in its outlook since
the previous quarter, Huang added. "The GTB is a useful tool for us to
anticipate economic developments at an early stage. I am confident that our
global presence allows us to balance the economic effects on our organization
and stay resilient to changes in global trade dynamics."
Latest results show negative effects of trade wars
For the first time since its launch in 2018, the
Barometer's results predict a slight decline in global trade between June and
August 2019, with its overall world trade outlook dropping to just 48 index
points. The continued trade dispute between the US and China has contributed
significantly to that decline, with both countries experiencing the largest
declines in their trade outlook (-11 points for the US, -7 points for China)
out of all countries surveyed by the Barometer.
Commenting on the latest forecast, Tim Scharwath,
CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said, "The latest GTB clearly
illustrates why trade disputes create no winners. Nevertheless, some major
economies such as Germany continue to record positive trade growth. And from a
year-to-date perspective, world trade growth has still been positive. Hence, we
remain confident in our initial prognosis that 2019 will be a year with overall
positive, but slower trade growth."
The DHL Global Trade Barometer is an innovative
and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of
global trade. It is based on vast amount of logistics data that are evaluated
with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator is published four times
a year and the next release date is scheduled for September 2019.
For more information on the DHL Global Trade
Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.
In the Global Trade
Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while
values below 50 indicate contraction.
Click here for more
information on the outlook for air freight and ocean freight or the key sectors
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