- India continues to lose momentum and falls below
the no-growth threshold for the first time since 2013
- Exports of Temperature or Climate Controlled
Goods, Chemicals & Products, Consumer Fashion Goods and Basic Raw Materials
expected to contribute most
MUMBAI, INDIA - Media OutReach - 3 October 2019 - India's
pace of growth looks set to be kept afloat by robust ocean exports despite an overall
decline amidst international trade slowdown, according to data from the DHL
Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world's leading logistics company.
The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early
indicator of global trade developments calculated using artificial intelligence
and big data analytics, revealed that India's trade growth outlook will be
driven primarily by healthy ocean exports of Temperature or Climate Controlled
Goods, Chemicals & Products, Consumer Fashion Goods and Basic Raw Materials.
In spite of this, September's ocean trade index fell nine points to 50 with air
trade registering a three-point climb to an index value of 48. India's overall
trade outlook index value of 49 will place the country in negative territory
for the first time in six years.
"The decline in India's trade outlook from
previous quarters suggests it is certainly not immune to current global
economic headwinds. However, with ocean exports remaining robust for sectors
like Consumer Fashion Goods and Basic Raw Materials, it's a positive sign that
export of manufacturing goods such as textiles, fabrics and the like remain
stalwart sectors that continue to uphold the country's economy," said Niki
Frank, CEO, Global Forwarding India. "Equally, local and foreign investors have
cause for optimism with the government unveiling a $20 billion package to slash
corporate taxes from 35% down to 25%, including
competitive 15% rate for new manufacturing units in its efforts to reverse
slowing growth and attract larger investors from abroad."
for India consistent with stagnating world trade outlook
The Barometer's results also suggest that world
trade remains at a crossroads and will further lose momentum over the next two
months, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous quarter. The current
decline is triggered solely by a drop in air trade, with global ocean trade
outlook remaining stable. All seven nations surveyed reveal indexes below 50
points except for Japan and the UK, where the Barometer forecasts a positive
growth momentum for the two economies at 53 points each. In the Global Trade
Barometer methodology, an index value above 50 indicates positive growth, while
values below 50 indicate contraction.
"Worldwide, trade conflicts continue to smoulder and geopolitical
tensions are causing uncertainty. Against
this backdrop, global trade continues to develop surprisingly well. Although
the DHL Global Trade Barometer has further decreased -- with an index value of
47 points --world trade is still closer to staying at its high level," Tim
Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said. "This strengthens our
conviction that globalization will go on and that logistics will remain its key
enabler in the future."
Impact of US-Chinese tensions reflected in their
trade conflict between China and the US continues to simmer, resulting in an
overall subdued trade mood, with US and China accounting for the most negative
trade outlooks in September. It is expected that US trade will shrink further,
remaining in negative territory with 45 points, despite having climbed one
point since June. Both air and ocean trade prospects for US remain almost
unchanged compared to the previous update. The DHL Global Trade Barometer forecasts
a moderate decline for Chinese trade by four points to 45. The main driver
of this development is the weak performance of Chinese air trade, which has
dropped significantly by eight points to 43 over the past three months.
Global Trade Barometer
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade
Barometer is an innovative and unique early indicator for the current state and
future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics
data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence.
The indicator is published four times a year and
the next release date is scheduled for November 2019. For more information on
the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit: https://www.dpdhl.com/en/media-relations/specials/global-trade-barometer.html.
You can find the press release for download as
well as further information on dpdhl.com/pressreleases
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