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ANZ raises GDP growth forecast

Update: March, 17/2015 - 08:44
A banking transaction is carried out. ANZ Bank economists say there is sufficient room for loosening monetary conditions in 2015. — Photo
HA NOI (VNS)  — ANZ Bank upped its annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target for Viet Nam to 6.5 per, for both 2015 and 2016, from 6.2 and 6.4 per cent, respectively.

In a report dated March 13, ANZ economists for ASEAN and the Pacific, Glenn Maguire and Eugenia Victorino, said support from external demand continues to be robust and various indicators are pointing to a recovery in domestic demand.

A steeper-than-expected pull back in inflation had led experts to revise their inflation forecasts to 2.6 per cent in 2015 and 3.8 per cent in 2016, lower than the previously anticipated 3.0 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively.

The economists estimated that industrial production growth over the first two months of this year is 14.2 per cent, up from 5.6 per cent from a year ago. This is the fastest annual gain since 2012, when this series was re-based.

Domestic investment was also slowly gaining traction, as the construction sector was expected to rise 8.8 per cent during the last fourth quarter, pushing up the 2014 sector growth to 6.3 per cent year-on-year – the fastest growth rate since 2011.

Retail sales growth averaged 14.5 per cent year-on-year during the first two months of 2015, and the real average was 13.7 per cent in light of weak inflation. This is also the fastest rise in retail sales in five years. — VNS

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