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VietNamNews

SBV survey predicts 14.5% credit growth

Update: October, 10/2014 - 08:44

Credit growth for Vietnamese dong loans in the last quarter is also expected to be higher than that of US dollar loans. — Photo baomoi

HA NOI (VNS) — Deposit and credit growth will likely accelerate in the last quarter of 2014, pushing the growth rate for deposits to 14.4 per cent and that for credit to 14.5 per cent this year.

This forecast is based on the survey on the latest business trends among credit institutions in the fourth quarter of 2014 by the State Bank of Viet Nam's Statistics and Forecast Department.

According to the survey, about 90 per cent of credit institutions anticipated deposits to rise by 4.96 per cent and credit to rise by 5.13 per cent in the fourth quarter.

The institutions said six-to-12 month deposits would post a higher increase than that of other terms, meaning the restructuring of the capital sources of institutions would be more rational and sustainable.

As much as 43 to 51 per cent of institutions expected deposit interest rate levels to remain stable in the last three months of the year while 35 per cent predicted the rate to further decline by 0.12 per cent from the third quarter. An estimated 44 per cent of the institutions also anticipated lending interest rates to decline by 0.22 per cent in the fourth quarter.

For the entire 2014, about 90 per cent of the institutions expected deposit and lending interest rate levels to either be stable or decline year-on-year, by 0.93 per cent for deposits and 1.14 per cent for lending.

Credit growth for Vietnamese dong loans in the last quarter is also expected to be higher than that of US dollar loans.

The survey also showed that credit growth rates of large commercial banks would be higher than that of small and medium banks.

According to the survey, all credit institutions are optimistic about liquidity, saying it would either remain stable or increase in the fourth quarter and the entire 2014.

Deposit rates cut

Vietcombank early this week slashed its annual dong deposit interest rates by 20 to 50 basic points, and with this third adjustment this year, the highest rate for these deposits now stands at 6.3 per cent.

The rates were reduced from 4.8 per cent to 4.5 per cent for one-month deposits,from 5 per cent to 4.5 per cent for the two-month term, and from 5.5 per cent to five per cent for the three-month term.

They were lowered from 5.7 per cent to 5.5 per cent for deposits with terms of six to nine months, from 6.5 per cent to 6.2 per cent for 12 months, and from 6.8 per cent to 6.3 per cent for 24 to 60 months. Non-term deposits also had a new rate of 0.8 per cent instead of 1 per cent.

Several banks have also adjusted the annual interest rates for short-term deposits in recent weeks. BIDV reduced the rates by 0.2 percentage point for terms of three to six months while MB, ABBank and Eximbank slashed the rates by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point for terms of less than 12 months.

According to the latest SBV report, dong interest rates have fallen by 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points this year compared with the end of last year. Deposit rates are now 5 to 6 per cent for short-term loans, 6 to 7.2 per cent for loans of less than 12 months and 7.3 to 7.8 per cent for longer-term loans. — VNS

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