HA NOI (VNS) — Despite recent losses driven by the Chinese stock rout, Viet Nam's stock market is one of the few bright spots among emerging markets tracked by US investment bank Goldman Sachs.
The main support was attributed to rising exports and the Vietnamese government's push to become an Asian manufacturing hub. The country's economic growth perked up to 6.4 per cent in the second quarter from 6.1 per cent during the previous three months.
Viet Nam's benchmark VN-Index has gained 4.9 per cent this year while US-based MSCI Inc's Next 11 equity gauge – which includes South Korea, Indonesia, Philippines, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, Mexico, Iran and Viet Nam – has tumbled 19 per cent this year.
Share prices in Brazil, Russia, India and China have also slumped 14 per cent through late last week.
Late in August, Bloomberg reported that among the 30 largest emerging economy equity markets, Vietnam experienced the least losses while half of the markets were in bear territory of 20 per cent or more, affected by China's yuan devaluation on August 11.
"Young populations and rising middle classes – characteristics that first lured Goldman Sachs to the Next 11 economies a decade ago – have failed to safeguard stock-market returns in a world facing higher US interest rates, tumbling commodity prices and a Chinese economic slowdown," Goldman said according to Bloomberg.
Withdrawals of exchange-traded funds in emerging markets were recorded at US$1.7 billion in the first week of September, a tenth week of outflows. Divestments focused on South Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt, Pakistan and Viet Nam.
Goldman Sachs said emerging countries were vulnerable to China's slowdown and heightened anticipation of a US Federal Reserve interest-rate increase, expected this month.
However, it maintained a positive view on long-term investment in these countries since the MSCI Next 11 ex Iran GDP Weighted Index climbed 61 per cent including dividends from the end of 2005 relative to a 46 per cent return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. — VNS